Posted by: mynaturaldiary | February 6, 2015

First Song 2015

Song Thrush first heard this morning.

I’ve been recording the day I first hear songbirds at home for a number of years, and these are the dates.

150206#1

As you can see, it depends upon whether and weather; whether we’ve passed the darkness of the winter solstice, and the subsequent weather thereafter.

It’s possible to plot this on normal probability paper to see the likely distribution.

150206#2

From a little statistics, it’s easy to give the earliest date (29th December, 5%) , the average date (24th January, 50%) and the latest date (19th February, 95%). So this year’s date is about 2 weeks later than average, because of the cold weather and snows we’ve been having.

And here’s more example of the same, first outside Cafe Twitch in a snowstorm earlier this week.

150205#4

The snows have melted since (hence the bird song). But on Roseberry Topping,  the snows remain.

150206#3

 

 


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